Donald Trump remains the “slight favorite” in the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, analysts Piper Sandler said on Thursday. The former president is leading in the polls, although his lead is slim nationally and in important Midwestern states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“The chances of a comfortable Biden victory (and the Democratic Senate that was always within reach) have diminished,” Piper Sandler wrote. “The House will likely choose the party that wins the White House.”
Analysts say the 2024 election will be significant for financial markets as both candidates “present an arsenal of risks to financial markets, both tangible and intangible.”
Unlike the recent elections, investors’ biggest concerns are macroeconomic. These include a potential reversal of decades of trade liberalization, increased geopolitical risks and instability, unsustainable fiscal policy and significant potential fluctuations in taxes, regulation and immigration.
“Investors are focused on potential tariffs and the fate of green IRA subsidies. Finance, healthcare, energy, defense, industrial and other industries also have a lot to do with the outcome,” Piper Sandler’s team added.
Regarding intangible risks, analysts emphasized that one candidate is “temperamentally unfit for duty” and the other is “physically unfit.”
“Both pose a threat to the rule of law, radicalize their own party and opposition, have legal and ethical problems, are considered illegitimate by half the country, have no desire to persuade the country and are too unpopular to be heard,” the investment bank said.
The company’s chances of winning the election are currently 60% for the GOP to win the White House, 55% for it to take a House seat, and 85% for it to win a Senate seat.
On specific issues, the report highlights several areas in which Trump is believed to have an advantage over Biden. These include the economy, immigration, inflation and America’s position in the world.
According to a CNN poll conducted in late April 2024, Trump leads Biden by 14 points on economic management and 17 points on immigration. In addition, the former US president is viewed more favorably in areas such as inflation, the war between Israel and Hamas, and crime and security.
On the other hand, Biden is ahead of Trump on issues such as access to abortion and health care.