Polina Devitt
LONDON (Reuters) – The global platinum shortage in 2024 will be larger than previously expected due to lower supplies from mines in South Africa and Russia, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said on Monday.
However, the 2024 shortfall of 476,000 troy ounces will be smaller than the 851,000 ounces in 2023 due to a 5% drop in demand, the WPIC, whose members include major Western platinum producers, said in a quarterly report. The company previously forecast a 2024 deficit of 418,000 ounces.
“We have a second year in a row of deficits that will equal 6% of total demand in 2024,” said Edward Sterk, WPIC research director. “The focus is on shipments, which were the second highest in our time series in the first quarter, with the full year also forecast to be close to 2020’s record low.”
The already announced restructuring and slower-than-previously expected production growth amid low palladium and rhodium prices will lead to a 2% decline in output from South African mines this year. Supplies from Russia, which plans to carry out maintenance at the smelter in 2024 and continues to repair damage caused by Western sanctions, will fall 9% to a multi-year low.
Meanwhile, demand for platinum, used in catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions from vehicle exhaust systems, among other applications, is expected to fall 5% to 7.587 million ounces this year after rising 26% in 2023.
Demand from the automotive sector will increase by 2% due to slowing consumer demand for battery electric vehicles, growth in both heavy-duty and hybrid vehicles, as well as stricter emissions regulations and the replacement of platinum by palladium, which is forecast to reach 742,000 ounces . this year added WPIC, which uses data from consulting firm Metals Focus.
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To cover the shortfall, onshore inventories will decline by 12% after falling 17% in 2023 to a four-year low of 3,620 million ounces, it added.
Platinum supply/demand (thousand ounces)*
2022 2023 2024 23/22 24/23 1st quarter 4 sq. 1 sq.
change change 2023 2023 2023
SUPPLY
Oil refining production: 5,520 5,604 5,468 2% -2% 1,192 1,532 1,235
– South Africa 3,915 3,956 3,871 1% -2% 778 1,143 816
– Zimbabwe 480 507 502 6% -1% 116 133 121
– North America 263 276 276 5% 0% 71 72 72
– Russia 663 674 616 2% -9% 180 136 178
– Other 200 190 203 -5% 7% 48 48 48
Change in manufacturers’ inventories +43 +11 0 +33 -23 0
Total mining industry supplies 5,563 5,615 5,468 1% -3% 1,226 1,509 1,235
Processing: 1764 1557 1642 -12% 5% 400 338 390
– Autocatalyst 1323 1138 1201 -14% 6% 287 235 275
– Jewelry 372 349 366 -6% 5% 95 85 98
– Industrial 69 71 75 3% 7% 17 18 17
GENERAL VIEW
-1%
7,327 7,172 7,111 -2% 1,626 1,847 1,625
DEMAND
Automotive industry 2,763 3,211 3,269 16% 2% 810 816 832
Jewelry 1,899 1,868 1,978 -2% 6% 463 476 486
Industry: 2,316 2,626 2,242 13% -15% 656 737 612
– Chemical 673 786 529 17% -33% 295 132 142
– Oil 193 158 156 -18% -1% 41 38 39
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– Electrical 106 89 88 -16% -1% 23 22 22
– Glass 505 701 524 39% -25% 80 310 175
– Medical 275 289 299 5% 3% 75 71 78
– Stationary hydrogen 15 33 75 114% 128% 5 13 14
– Other 548 571 571 4% 0% 137 150 142
Investments: -606 318 99 -69% 198 -71 64
– Bullions, Coins 259 323 199 25% -38% 128 61 64
– ETF Holdings -558 -20 -120 40 -116 11
– Shares owned by exchanges -307 14 20 29 -16 -11
TOTAL DEMAND
-5%
6,372 8,023 7,587 26% 2,128 1,959 1,994
Balance 955 -851 -476 -502 -112 -369
Aboveground reserves 4,947 4,097 3,620 -17% -12%
Source: Metals Focus 2020–2024.