When a panel blew out of an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 in January, Boeing’s safety standards and leadership were at the forefront. It’s gotten slower since then production rate and deliveries fall further behind market leader and German rival Airbus.
As the Seattle-based planemaker grapples with the fallout from the crash and searches for a new CEO, it has sparked debate over whether a third contender could enter the global aviation market dominated by Airbus and Boeing, particularly those backed by the Chinese state. COMAK.
The Chinese airline manufacturer has been working for more than a decade to create a promising commercial aircraft that could shake the stronghold of Boeing and Airbus. COMAC is still small, given that only five of its aircraft are operated by one of the country’s largest carriers, China Eastern Airlines. But a shortage of planes amid strong travel demand, Boeing’s precarious position and the C919’s grand debut in Singapore last month all point to an opening in the aviation market that could benefit COMAC as it sees its piece of the aviation pie.
What is COMAC?
The Chinese group first began work on its narrow-body airliner in 2008, with production starting three years later. Its C919 aircraft are now seen as possible competitors to the Boeing 737 as well as the Airbus 320 jetliners. They were certified by China’s aviation authority in September 2022 and made their first commercial flights within the country a year ago.
The aircraft manufacturer’s goal had always been to topple the two giants, and senior aviation industry executives recognized COMAC’s potential as a competitor. Aviation consultancy IBA estimates COMAC will deliver nine aircraft in 2024 – less than a third of Boeing’s monthly deliveries, highlighting the daunting task facing the Chinese group.
But it is already attracting more interest from airlines and could gain share in China and the rest of Asia before turning its attention to the rest of the world.
“The challenges Boeing faces have led to increased focus on the opportunities that lie ahead for COMAC. The question is, can COMAC take advantage of Boeing’s weakening position in the near future?” Mike Yeomans, director of valuation and consulting at the IBA, said Luck.
IBA estimates that COMAC will capture 4% of global narrowbody aircraft deliveries, giving it just over 1% market share by 2030. While further growth may take years, Boeing’s uncertainty and appetite for travel are helping the start. Airbus also benefited from these trendsas it gained market share amid the ongoing crisis.
Yeomans also noted that with narrowbodies from Airbus and Boeing selling out for most of this decade, “the C919 has a great opportunity to gain market share, especially in the domestic market.”
It is still unclear whether Boeing’s problems have directly impacted demand for COMAC aircraft.
Will COMAC be able to make progress… soon?
Although COMAC now has more tailwinds than before, one of the biggest challenges for COMAC is gaining certification from major bodies outside of China. The Chinese group’s influence is fairly limited for now, especially because it is not certified by U.S. and European regulators, which is critical if it hopes to become “a credible threat to the current duopoly in the global single-aisle market,” Yeomans said.
Another unresolved question is whether COMAC can handle the challenge of increasing production if demand increases.
“COMAC production rates have been much lower and inconsistent over time, and so we do not expect to be able to dramatically change the dynamics in the near future,” said John Mowry of Alton Aviation Consulting. Luck, referring to the power dynamics between Airbus, Boeing and COMAC. However, he added that there was potential for “significant demand” in the narrowbody market in the medium to long term.
The mark that COMAC leaves on its current and future customers in terms of quality control, on-time delivery and more can also determine whether the company has a future in relinquishing the control shared by its German and American counterparts.
“The extent to which it will displace the capabilities of Airbus and Boeing will depend on its performance characteristics and reliability with launch operator China Eastern and others when they begin taking deliveries.”
All skepticism aside, things are brewing at COMAC – they have identified two types of C919 that in the works and received 50 orders for aircraft from Tibet Airlines in February. It may be some time before COMAC breaks the duopoly, but for now it looks like the company has already done its part.