Amina Niasse
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The share of uninsured Americans will rise to 8.9% over the next decade from 7.7% in 2024, driven by rising immigration and a decline in the number of 19- to 24-year-olds following changes in federal government policy. . according to a Congressional Budget Office report released Tuesday.
“We expect the rate of uninsured immigrants arriving during the surge to be about four times higher than the overall population,” said Jessica Hale, an analyst at the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan congressional budget agency.
“This is largely a result of eligibility for large federal health care programs, which depends in part on a person’s immigration status,” Hale added.
The 2023 end of COVID-19-era policies requiring states to maintain enrollment in Medicaid recipients and the expiration of additional subsidies under Obamacare plans are expected to reduce the percentage of young people insured.
Most of the decline in the number of uninsured will occur in the next two years. The report says the uninsured rate should stabilize at around 9% between 2027 and 2034. That figure of 32 million is lower than pre-pandemic levels due to the projected older U.S. population.
Most people in the United States over the age of 65 are covered by Medicare. In 2034, 17 million people ages 19 to 24 are expected to be uninsured, Hale said.
This age group is less likely to be offered employer-sponsored plans and represents a large share of undocumented immigrants who may not be eligible for government-sponsored plans.
Although the Affordable Care Act (ACA), commonly known as Obamacare, expands coverage for dependent children up to age 26, only 15% of young adults are on plans sponsored by their parents, the CBO reports.
Enrollment in employer-sponsored plans, the most common form of insurance in the U.S., will rise to 170 million in 2034 from 164 million in 2024 due to declining eligibility for Obamacare subsidies as rising wages expand the middle-income population.
Expanded subsidies for plans introduced by the ACA were expanded by the Inflation Relief Act and are expected to expire in 2025. For middle-income households purchasing plans through ACA marketplaces such as HealthCare.gov, the policy provides a tax benefit and subsidizes the cost of health insurance premiums.
The rate of uninsured people in the US reached a record low of 7.2% in 2023. In a May report, the CBO projected that 3.8 million Americans would remain uninsured as a result of the expiration of market-based subsidies.