Analysts at Canaccord Genuity raised their price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:) and revised their delivery estimates for the coming quarter and fiscal year 2024.
While maintaining a Buy rating on the stock, the investment bank raised its price target to $267 from $222, implying a 50% upside from the last closing price.
“Over the past few weeks, we have significantly improved tracking of Tesla deliveries around the world,” Canaccord said in the note. “After tirelessly searching the Internet for country-level supply data, we have compiled some meaningful information on shipments in Q2 2024,” adding that the database covers approximately 40 countries.
Canaccord analysts cut their second-quarter 2024 delivery estimates to 429,000 from 461,100 vehicles, below the FactSet consensus of 445,000. Analysts said the downward revision reflects the bank’s recent data analysis.
“It is important to note that we are assessing June trends by country. June is typically the month with the highest sales in the quarter; we take this seasonality into account in our estimates,” they wrote.
For full-year 2024, Canaccord adjusted its delivery estimates to approximately 1.86 million vehicles, reflecting 3% year-over-year growth. The revision is lower than the previous estimate of 1.93 million vehicles, but still exceeds the FactSet consensus of 1.84 million.
Analysts said they expect Tesla deliveries in 2024 to rise from last year due to upbeat comments from CEO Elon Musk during the first quarter 2024 earnings call “and the potential arrival of new models in late 2024.” .
From a geographic perspective, Canaccord noted various trends in Tesla’s core markets. In China, shipments are showing growth, with May 2024 shipments up about 31% year-over-year to ~55.8K, offsetting April’s tepid ~31.4K. Analysts expect this trend to “continue into June “, as deliveries to China in the second quarter of 2024 are estimated at 157,800 vehicles, reflecting sequential growth of 19.1%.
Conversely, Europe shows weakness, with a 24% sequential decline in shipments in April and May, leading to an estimated 71,600 shipments in the second quarter, a sequential decline of 14.1% and a year-over-year decline of 23.1%.
North America presents a mixed picture, with U.S. deliveries estimated at 155,100 vehicles in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting sequential growth from the first quarter but year-over-year decline.
“Our view is based on Model Y inventory, Model 3 production constraints and the Cybertruck ramp,” the analysts added.