The stock is up more than 11% year to date as major Wall Street brokerage firms have raised their price targets in recent days.
Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 rises 10% or more during the first 100 days of the year, it tends to continue to rise.
According to Bank of America’s analysis, the average return for the remainder of such years is 7.1%, with a median of 9.3%.
“This equates to an SPX of 5,640 to 5,750 for year-end 2024. The average and median year-end returns for all years since 1928 of 5.0% and 7.3%, respectively, point to an SPX of 5,530 to 5,650 at year-end,” the report said.
The S&P 500’s performance over the first 100 days of 2024 is especially important because it comes in a presidential election year that typically sees more modest gains.
Historically, during such periods, the index rose 63% of the time, with an average return of -0.9% and a median return of 0.8%.
The 10.4% year-to-date gain in 2024 ranks as the second-best start to an election year since 1928, when growth was 12.5%.
Further strengthening the positive outlook: When the S&P 500 rose in the first 100 days of a presidential election year, the rest of the year followed suit 93% of the time. The average return over these periods is an impressive 10.1%, with an average return of 8.9%.
For the S&P 500, this could lead to year-end targets of 5800 and 5730, respectively.
Overall, historical patterns across all election years show the index rising 88% of the time, with average and median returns of 8.8% and 8.5%, indicating a potential range of 5,730 to 5,700 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2024.