US President Joe Biden’s 2020 re-election campaign was built on a promise to restore normalcy after the chaotic Trump years.
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the question of who the “chaos candidate” might be is a growing concern, analysts at Piper Sandler said on Thursday.
Former President Donald Trump remains a controversial figure. Despite his legal troubles, Trump still has a significant following and polls show he is no longer the clear candidate against chaos.
Meanwhile, voters’ perception of President Biden’s age and ability is another deciding factor. The Harvard-Harris poll found that 59% of voters believe Biden’s “age, poor memory or loss of concentration” make his re-election “potentially dangerous for the country.”
Moreover, 63% believe Biden’s public missteps are becoming more frequent, raising concerns about his ability to complete a second term without a disruptive transition due to health concerns.
There is widespread agreement among voters that Biden is not much better than Trump when it comes to ethical or legal issues. While voters have little faith that Trump is guilty of crimes, they also suspect that the charges are politically motivated.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden’s upcoming trial and allegations of Joe Biden’s involvement in his son’s business dealings further complicate the president’s ethical situation.
Polls show voters trust Trump over Biden to tackle the big issues facing the country, from international chaos to domestic problems such as inflation that has made daily life difficult for many Americans.
“Around the world, on our southern border and on our college campuses, chaos reigns—and by wide margins, voters trust Trump over Biden to tackle nearly every major challenge facing the country,” the analysts wrote. Piper Sandler.
“A surge in inflation may not fit the narrow definition of chaos, but it is making it much more difficult for average voters to make ends meet in their daily lives. This is the biggest problem for them and they blame most of it on Biden alone,” they added.
The perception of both candidates is a mixture of mistrust and anxiety, making it difficult to identify a single “chaos candidate.” However, looming lawsuits and ongoing ethical questions surrounding both Biden and Trump mean chaos could come from either side, depending on how the issues unfold.
Perhaps most importantly, Biden’s position on the issue of protecting democracy, which Democrats are seeking to make central to their campaign, is not as strong as they might have hoped. In key swing states, Biden and Trump are nearly tied on this issue, indicating that the incumbent does not have a clear advantage.