Research firm Strategas released data showing their own inflation rate rose 3.8% year on year. The Common Person CPI focuses on items that people need to buy regularly: food, energy, housing, clothing, utilities and insurance.
This is the ninth month in a row that the average person’s consumer price index has exceeded headline inflation. Throughout Biden’s presidency, the index beat headline inflation in 34 of the 40 months.
Strategas suggests this persistent trend could become a challenge for President Biden as election issues come to the fore.
“President Biden may not have enough time to change voters’ perceptions,” the company said.
In a related note, BCA Research acknowledged the accumulating challenges facing the Biden administration.
They indicated that they could consider changing their election forecasts in the summer if current trends continue.
BCA Research’s quantitative models continue to show slight preferences for Democrats in the White House and Republicans in the Senate, consistent with their qualitative analysis.
They also noted that while the economy shows no signs of an imminent recession, vulnerabilities are beginning to emerge due to persistently high interest rates.
Moreover, failures in foreign policy pose another potential risk for President Biden.
“Ongoing US elections should lead to increased political risk and political uncertainty, which should weigh on investor sentiment mid-year,” the BCA said.